Behavioral Macro

Mark Dow's microblog, analyzing global macroeconomic and market issues, often through the prism of our cognitive shortcomings

Surprise! (index): Update

On December 16th I posted some trading views, in which I referenced the economic surprise index Citigroup publishes for the US. Here it is, from that date, below:

And here is the update from today:

Remember, a positive reading of the Index suggests that economic releases have been, on balance, beating consensus. So a lower positive number means less positive surprise. It doesn’t mean negative surprise until it crosses zero.

We’re approaching zero pretty fast.

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